So, no team has played more than 10 games as of this morning (Tuesday) when i’m writing this which means its still all perfectly true and accurate and not at all late or ridiculous. Anyways all that being said we are just going to blast right past that fact for now, a thing I am greatly appreciative of you being so receptive to. So, let’s get it…
Note - All information comes from CapFriendly, Hockey-Reference, and Evolving-Hockey, unless otherwise stated. Over Under betting lines in parentheses courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Winnipeg Jets (92.5):
Is it insane to say that Connor Hellebuyck is one of the five best players in the league? Probably. One of the five most valuable? Not so much. Over the last four seasons (17-18 thru 20-21) Hellebuyck has put up an absurd 41.42 GSAx total. Perhaps more impressive though, is that he’s done it with little to no defensive help. Over that same span, only three Jets defensemen have posted a season total of 1.0+ xWAR. For context, in the entirety of the NHL, 269 defensemen posted a season total of 1.0+ xWAR, and only three of them did so in Winnipeg (Just to really drive the point home, Victor Hedman hasn’t finished under 1 xWAR in any of those seasons). Hellebuyck is the best goalie on the planet right now, and any argument to the contrary is specious at best. Unfortunately for Winnipeg, Hellebuyck hasn’t recorded a goal and only has seven points to his name in that span.
The good news for Jets fans is that they improved the defense over the summer (low bars being what they are) by bringing in veteran rearguards Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt. Hopefully improving the cumulative competency of the blueline helps to make life easier for the American netminder, because if he can get just a little bit of help in his own end, the Jets have the firepower to go out and compete on a nightly basis. Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Kyle Connor is a truly enviable level of top-six talent. Multiple players capable of hitting 30 goals and/or posting 70 points and still, I can’t in good faith put them in the proper contender tier. It would take a JS Giguere -esque run from Hellebuyck to get the Jets into a position where they can contend, and even then, we saw how far that got Anaheim in 2002-03.
Vibe Check:
New York Rangers (95.5):
Look if nothing else, you can’t accuse this front office of running it back with the same group after a disappointing to finish last season. Now the motivation behind those changes, well, that’s a point of debate. While scholars remain unsure, it does seem that this change in ethos was affected by one moment in particular.
While the evidence certainly does seem to point in the direction of this being the impetus for the roster overhaul, who can really say? We may never know, but we do know that whatever it was, it caused them to actively seek players like Ryan Reaves, and to a lesser extent though parallel in thought process, Barclay Goodrow, Sammy Blais, and Jarred Tinordi.
The New York Rangers have a strong foundation with players like Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Igor Shesterkin, and Jacob Trouba on the roster. Even Chris Kreider, despite being on what should quickly become one of the worst contracts in the league, is still an effective and impactful player. Add in recent lottery picks Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, along with last year’s Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox, and suddenly, you can start to see where this team expects itself to be in the playoff race. The problem comes in the fact that they dont seem to have players on the same timeline. Fox, Kakko, Lafreniere, and even Shesterkin can certainly be looked to as the next wave of players, but guys like Panarin, Zibanejad, and Trouba are in the middle of whatever win now window they have as players. The best bet they have to bridging that gap is a trade for Eichel but Zibanejad' and Kreider’s deals make that all but impossible now. The Rangers have a fair few things to be optimistic about, but not enough to think they’re a real threat come the playoffs.
Vibe Check:
Minnesota Wild (97.5):
Boy howdy, Kirill Kaprizov is fun eh? The reigning Calder Trophy winner enters the 2021-22 season with an expectation that he will be firmly entrenched in both the scoring title race and the Hart conversation, and he’s not the only player on this team that has a chance at some hardware. Joel Erikkson Ek has emerged as a strong defensive center that should spend most of this year matched up against every opponent's top line. These next few years will be where he earns the Selke Trophy he’s going to win in four or five years. Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello provide a punch of scoring depth to help bolster what is a mediocre, though solid, forward group. Which is a major factor in them being outside of the legit contender’s tier.
Kaprizov will be asked to carry a line on his own, which is something he seems more than capable of doing, but still requires a proof of concept at this point. The problem Minnesota faces, is that they lack the depth to overcome not having a true first line center, a la Vegas. What they do have, however, is a very strong defense corp and a young goalie who managed to sneak into the Calder conversation as well. All in all, it’s a very promising position for the franchise to be in, but unless Kaprizov turns into Kucherov or Erikkson Ek into Bergeron, it won’t be enough to compete this year. But they should be able to make the playoffs, and once that happens, well, who knows.
Vibe Check:
Edmonton Oilers (97.5):
So like, what am I even really supposed to say here? The Edmonton Oilers still have two of the six or so best offensive players in the league. They have a couple of solid mid-roster guys like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Zach Hyman. Their defense remains… dubious, though not without upside. Tyson Barrie, Darnell Nurse, and Evan Bouchard have the ability to potentially chip in from the blueline, while Players like Duncan Keith and Kris Russel will be asked to play something akin to defense. In net they will once again lean on Mike Smith - who is really like a third defenseman back there with his stick handling - to play 60 games and try not to be the bad version of Mike Smith most nights. Should that not work, well, there’s always Mikko Koskinen! Overseeing the whole project is Dave Tippett and Ken Holland, so I see no way this doesn’t work out perfectly.
All dumb jokes aside, this team is a two horse chariot and all they need is for the wheels to not fall off the wagon in the middle of the race. McDavid and Draisaitl are ridiculously special when it comes to generating offense, which is why they both have a Hart Trophy to their name. The question will be about defensive depth and goaltending up until the playoffs. At which point it will just be about goaltending and letting Connor and Leon cook. Which, if we’re being honest, isn’t really a great plan as far as long-term success and sustainability is concerned, but can absolutely work for the two months in the post-season. Which is why, of all the teams on this list, they have the best case to be slid up a tier. Unfortunately, I am not particularly keen on looking at 65 year old Mike Smith and going “yeah this should be fine”. But what the hell do I know, Holland is the guy with the rings.
Vibe Check:
New York Islanders (98.5):
Barry Trotz is entering into his 23rd season as a head coach in the National Hockey League, his fourth with the Islanders. In that time, he has failed to reach the playoffs eight times, five of which were the first five years the Nashville Predators existence as an expansion team, ultimately getting the Ovechkin Capitals over the hump and crowned Stanley Cup Champions. Now he’s in New York along with fellow Joykill Extraordinaire Lou Lamoriello and they will be looking to stake their claim at the top of a division with more big names than seemingly legit contenders. But for as much these two figureheads oversee the team in such a way that they are extensions of themselves, there is very real talent on this roster. The question, is if there’s enough.
Upfront they have Matthew Barzal and Anders Lee to lead the way. As Barzal moves into what will likely be the most productive years of his career, Lee will likely be moving out of it. At 31, the expectations for Lee will be less about leading the team in goals or points, and more about being a difference maker in big moments and on special teams. In his last two full seasons he scored 10 and 14 goals respectively, and Trotz will be hoping he can find that kind of form again on the top power play with Barzal. Players like Josh Bailey and Brock Nelson provide solid scoring depth, while Casey Cizikas remains the best bottom-sox center in hockey. Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech were one of the best pairs in hockey last year, but will be asked to solidify separate pairs this year. And perhaps most importantly, at least narratively speaking, we see two players come home in free agency. Zach Parise reunites with Lou after being bought out by Minnesota, and Zdeno Chara returns to the team that drafted him after a year in DC.
Vibe Check:
This is me wishing that the Rangers had just run it back with the same GM and President to boot.